
-------- TML Message #1048 --------

Archive-Message-Number: 1048
From: ("Brent L. Woods") woodsb@gn.ecn.purdue.edu
Subject: Re: Psionic help
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 90 0:15:05 EST



 In message: <9002180701.AA03915@uunet.uu.net> Stephen D. Smith writes:
 >
 >> 1. 1 milligram of antimatter is roughly equivalent to 10 kilos 
 >>    of TNT. That ain't gonna bother the pirate much. 
 >>    (approximately .01% of the mass in a fission bomb is 
 >>    converted to energy, a 20 kT bomb has about 10 kilo's of 
 >>    fissionables. The rest is simple calculations)
 > 
 >      I was under the impression that a matter/antimatter 
 >explosion was a FUSION reaction, and 100% complete energy 

     Nope.  Fusion is, basically, slamming atoms together hard enough that
they "fuse" (that is, meld together to form a new, heavier atom).  For an
example, look at the Hydrogen -> Helium reaction (the one that makes
sunlight, among other things).

     A matter-antimatter reaction, on the other hand, is the *total
conversion* of mass into its equivalent quantity of energy (I'm given to
understand that this reaction produces mostly gamma radiation, but my
knowledge may be obsolete).  For a given amount of antimatter (or
contra-terrene matter) m, the reaction optimally converts a mass of 2m
(the antimatter plus an equivalent amount of normal, or terrene matter)
into energy.  The relationship is shown mathematically with the famous
equation:
                2
          E = mc                                   (1)

where E is the energy produced, m is the mass, and c is the speed of light
in a vacuum (approximately 3e8 m/s).  As you can see, even a small amount
of mass represents a *huge* (at least, in human terms) amount of energy.

     In the above example of 1 mg of antimatter, the reaction would
involve 2 mg of mass (don't forget your normal matter), so the energy is
(using cgs):

          E = (2e-3) * (3e10)
            = 6e7 ergs

     Not bad, but not catastophic, either.  Don't forget, in the example
above, this energy is applied to the *hull* of a starship.  Starship hulls
are made of the toughest materials available, since they have to endure
a very hazardous environment.

 >conversion, not .01%. I do puzzle at a ship that could take a 
 >10 kilo TNT explosion on it's hull and not be bothered. (I 
 >guess Megatraveller ships are a LOT tougher than I thought.)

     Bothered?  Maybe.  We *are* talking about a fairly dense gamma flux
applied to a small area of hull.  I'm sure that it (as well as the shock)
would be noticed.  But I doubt that it would do even as much damage as
a standard HE ship-to-ship missile.

 >> 2. This happened in *space*. Therefore, the hydrogen fuel is 
 >>    no big deal. Hydrogen is *NOT* explosive. Hydrogen mixed 
 >>    with an oxidizer is. Blow a hole in a fuel tank, and you'll
 >>    cause a small side thrust due to the escaping fuel. You'll 
 >>    also make them worry about their fuel reserves.
 > 
 >      If a FUSION reaction took place in a hydrogen fuel tank 
 >might not SOME of the hydrogen participate in the reaction? It

     Not enough to matter.  Remember, fusion reactions are *extremely*
difficult to maintain (if it was easy, everybody'd be doing it--literally)
*If* the antimatter suddenly appeared in the fuel tank, the conversion
*might* cause some of the neighboring hydrogen to fuse, but the energy
output of this secondary fusion would be negligible in comparison to the
yield from the matter-antimatter reaction.

 >                                                         wouldn't
 >the gamma radiation mess up the ship systems, as well as the 
 >biological systems?

     Probably not.  The amount of radiation produced is quite a bit
below that of a nuclear (or thermonuclear) device.  I think the hull
could take it in stride, especially at higher tech levels.


- --
     Brent

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-------- TML Message #1049 --------

Archive-Message-Number: 1049
From: ("45252-Peter L. Berghold") wrgate.wr.tek.com!uunet.uu.net!allegra!violin!plb@tektronix.TEK.COM
Subject: Some Thoughts...
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 90 8:47:33 EST


Operating System: HP-UX A.B7.00 U
Organization: AT&T-BL, Red Hill System Administration Group (HRSAG)
Location: HR 1F138
Phone: (201) 615-4419
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.2 PL16]

Just out of curiosity...  how do other folks out there handle the prospect
of military career characters swapping services?

Some background here:   When I was in the U.S. Navy (1975-1981) we often had
folks that were called OSVETS.   (Other Service VETeranS)   They would 
typically come into the Navy and instead of attending boot camp they would 
attend an orientation school that would acclimate them to the Navy environment.
Typically they would keep their old rank or at most drop one rank.   They 
would, however, need to take the rating exams for the rank they were holding 
and pass them.

With that in mind, in some of my own campaigns, as well as some that I played
in, multi service characters were allowed.   The methodology in place was 
as follows:

	1) Muster out of the original service.

	2) Make the enlistment roll.

	3) On 1d6 < 3 (if using Mercenary rules) drop 
	one rank.  Exceptions:  If prior service was 
	"unranked".

This option was allowed for "enlisted" characters and not officers.  An 
officer gets his commision in one branch and pretty much stays there. 
The exception to that rule is Marine officers who want to switch to the 
Navy.  They need to make the enlistment roll with a dm -2 and then roll 
2d6 10+ .

Thoughts????

- -- 
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-------- TML Message #1050 --------

Archive-Message-Number: 1050
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 90 10:15:07 EST
From: (Dan Corrin) dan@engrg.uwo.ca
Subject: Anti-Matter


There has been a lot of discussion on Anti-matter recently on the list. One
thing that people have not mentioned is that anti-matter is not an element
in and of itself. You have anti-electrons (positrons), anti-hydrogen,
anti-helium, anti-uranium, etc.

Perhaps the more physics oriented on the list could clairify the next point:
I have read (perhaps in Sci-Fi) that a matter-antimatter reaction only takes
place between like elements. This becomes important with the higher tech
missiles (anti-matter ones). If a chunk of anti-carbon is impacting on a
hull (presumably some iron/titanium type metal), what happens?

Scenario 1) Every gram of the anti-carbon combies with the metal for a really
big boom (this is what the rules imply). All the missile owners are happy.

Scenario 2) On impact the atoms don't "fit" and only the surface electrons 
combine for a small explosion hurling the majority of the anti-carbon in the
opposite direction. All the ship owners would be happy, as you would have to
have a missile corresponding to the hull nearly exactly (Anti-titanium, 
covered by the same type of anti-paint etc.)

			-Dan

Dan Corrin, System Manager, Mechanical Engineering, UWO, London, Ontario
TML FTP site coordinator:  dan@engrg.uwo.ca   ...!watmath!julian!engrg!dan

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-------- TML Message #1051 --------

Archive-Message-Number: 1051
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 90 12:18:48 EST
From: (Andrew Salamon) salamon@sun.acs.udel.edu


Greetings to All,

   Sorry to repost this, but I found some mistakes and made some
changes, re-enjoy:

Courier Grav Bike
Craft Id:  Grav Bike, Type ZK, TL17, Mcr 5.024594 
Hull    :  1/1, Disp=.5, Config=1AF, Armor=31H
           Unloaded=1.6841tons, Loaded=1.8161
Power   :  1/2, Fusion=.98Mw, Duration=10hours
Loco    :  1/2, LowPowerLGrav=14tons, NOE=250kph
           Cruise=3150, Top=4200
Commo   :  Radio=Planetary
Sensors :  Radar=Vdistant, EMSpass=Interplanetary, RadarJammer=Vdistant
           RadioJammer=planetary
           ActObjScan=dif, ActObjPin=dif, PassEngScan=Rout
Off/Def :  	        pen/attn	Dam	MaxRange	sig
           Beam laser	6/2		5	Distant(2.5)	low
Control :  Comp=0/bis x2, Panel=Dynamic linked x3, Special=Heads Up Holo
Accom   :  Cramped seat x1
Other   :  Feul=1.4kl, Cargo=.973kl (max 180kg), Size=small,
           EMlevel=mod

  I have a few questions.  Does the armor cover the driver?  Is this a
design decision or do I have to do something to make it happen, i.e. add
basic env and basic ls?  If I reduce the armor, can the weight of the
hull be reduced below the value given in the vehicle chassis table?
Would feul cells take up less volume and weight for the same power
output?  Would anybody be stupid enough to ride one of these things on a
possibly dangerous courier mission?  How does the armor compare to the
armor levels in Hand to Hand combat, cloth and combat armor etc.?  Do
the numbers mean the same thing, for example, a speeder has an armor of
4, is this less than the protection provided by cloth armor?

  Bye y'all.

Magic in my Mind                     |   /Andrew/
Music in my Heart                    |   soi-disant Bleydion op Rhys
Laughter in my Soul                  |   salamon@sun.acs.udel.edu
And...A Sword in my Fist (sigh)      | 


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-------- TML Message #1052 --------

Archive-Message-Number: 1052
Subject: Antimatter & you...
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 90 11:04:46 PST
From: (Leonard Erickson) leonard@tessi.UUCP


A few points in response to Stephen D. Smith's reply to my msg.

I mentioned the energy conversion in a fission bomb to show where I was
getting my figures.

A matter/antimatter reaction is neither fission nor fusion. 

I said 10 kg of tnt wouldn't bother the pirate much, not that it
wouldn't bother them at all.

And finally, no, even if it hit the fuel tank, it wouldn't cause the
hydrogen to undergo a fusion explosion. Both fission and fusion reactions
require *something* to hold the reaction together until it is mostly
completed. Otherwise the first bit to react will blow the reaction apart
(you can take enough plutonium to make a bomb and place the pieces
together. Instead of a 20 kiloton explosion, you get the equivalent of
a blasting cap, and that scatters the pieces and stops the reaction.)
A fusion reaction requires that the hydrogen meet certain conditions of
temperature *and* pressure and that those conditions be maintained for
a period of time. (the temp and pressure conditions are such that you
can trade pressure for temperature). The bit of hydrogen near your
blast might have reached a hugh enough temperature. It's doubtful that
it reached a high enough pressure, and virtually certain that it didn't
do so for enough time!

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-------- TML Message #1053 --------

Archive-Message-Number: 1053
From: ("Brent L. Woods") woodsb@gn.ecn.purdue.edu
Subject: Re: Anti-Matter
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 90 16:11:31 EST


 In message: <9002191515.AA07858@engrg.uwo.ca> Dan Corrin writes:
 >
 >There has been a lot of discussion on Anti-matter recently on the list. One
 >thing that people have not mentioned is that anti-matter is not an element
 >in and of itself. You have anti-electrons (positrons), anti-hydrogen,
 >anti-helium, anti-uranium, etc.

     Um...  Yes, but usually you deal with individual antiparticles.  In
Traveller terms, there was an article in issue 20 of the Journal ("Spinal
Mounts Revisited," page 40) that talked about antiparticle accelerators
(oof; woudn't that just ruin your whole day?).

     However, I can't see any reason against antiparticles associating
themselves into antiatoms.  Hmm.  If you used antihydrogen to form
antihelium would that be antifusion?  But, I digress...  ;-)

 >Perhaps the more physics oriented on the list could clairify the next point:
 >I have read (perhaps in Sci-Fi) that a matter-antimatter reaction only takes
 >place between like elements. This becomes important with the higher tech
 >missiles (anti-matter ones). If a chunk of anti-carbon is impacting on a
 >hull (presumably some iron/titanium type metal), what happens?

     Well, if the structure of contra-terrene atoms are analagous to
terrene, then there should be a cloud of positrons (antielectrons--
positively charged) surrounding the nuclei.  Once the positron shells
come in contact with the electron shells of normal matter, then a
conversion reaction would take place.  Also, since charged antiparticles
(that is, not antineutrons) have the opposite charge of their terrene
forms, they would be attracted to one another.

 >Scenario 1) Every gram of the anti-carbon combies with the metal for a really
 >big boom (this is what the rules imply). All the missile owners are happy.
 >
 >Scenario 2) On impact the atoms don't "fit" and only the surface electrons 
 >combine for a small explosion hurling the majority of the anti-carbon in the
 >opposite direction. All the ship owners would be happy, as you would have to
 >have a missile corresponding to the hull nearly exactly (Anti-titanium, 
 >covered by the same type of anti-paint etc.)

     I think Scenario 1 is the one that'll fly.  However, I'm not a
physicist, merely an interested amateur.


- --
     Brent

INTERNET:  woodsb@gn.ecn.purdue.edu  /  woodsb@attctc.dallas.tx.us
USENET:  pur-ee!gn.ecn.purdue.edu!woodsb
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          Brent Woods@1:201/40.303  (from FidoNet)
USNAIL:  320 Brown St., #406  /  W. Laf., IN  47906
PHONE:  +1 (317) 743-8421 (voice)


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-------- TML Message #1054 --------

Archive-Message-Number: 1054
From: ("Mark F. Cook") markc@hpcvss.cv.hp.COM
Subject: Re: Psionic help
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 90 14:06:12 PST


> ...........................  For a given amount of antimatter (or
> contra-terrene matter) m, the reaction optimally converts a mass of 2m
> (the antimatter plus an equivalent amount of normal, or terrene matter)
> into energy.  The relationship is shown mathematically with the famous
> equation:
>                 2
>           E = mc                                   (1)
> 
> where E is the energy produced, m is the mass, and c is the speed of light
> in a vacuum (approximately 3e8 m/s).  As you can see, even a small amount
> of mass represents a *huge* (at least, in human terms) amount of energy.
> 
>      In the above example of 1 mg of antimatter, the reaction would
> involve 2 mg of mass (don't forget your normal matter), so the energy is
> (using cgs):
> 
>           E = (2e-3) * (3e10)
>             = 6e7 ergs
> 
>      Not bad, but not catastophic, either.  Don't forget, in the example

The TOTAL CONVERSION statement is correct, and the formula is correct,
but the numbers plugged into it are WAY off.  The Speed-of-Light (3e8 m/s)
squared is 9e16, not 3e10 (remember, (x^y)^z = (x^z)^(y*z)).  Therefore,
using MKS units:

        E = (2e-3) * (9e16)
          = 1.8e14 joules (= 1.8e21 ergs, since 1 joule=1e7 ergs)

not 6e7 ergs.  And since that amount of energy would make plasma of a 
Plankwell-class battleship, well, if that's not catastrophic, then I don't
want to be around for something that is :-).  Seriously, according to The
Encyclopaedia Britannica (15th Ed., 1987), in Vol. 16, page 520, Column 1,
the total energy (including radiation) generated by the 20-kiloton bomb
dropped on Hiroshima was about 1e13 joules (1e7 Kw-Hrs.).  If we assume
(based on that data) that there are 5e12 joules released per kiloton of
nuclear detonation (1e13/20), and that any increase is linear, then the
total conversion reaction postulated above would be roughly eqaul to a
200 kiloton nuclear detonation.

Not in MY backyard, thank you very much!

Later,

        Mark F. Cook

USMail: User Interface Technical Support
        Hewlett-Packard - Interface Technology Operation
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-------- TML Message #1055 --------

Archive-Message-Number: 1055
Subject: TML: PLEASE READ
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 90 14:55:18 PST
From: (James T Perkins) jamesp@metolius.WR



Effective tommorrow evening, distribution on the Traveller Mailing List
will change.

Members currently receiving the twice-a-week digests will see no change.

Members currently receiving "instant" mail will see two *major* changes:

    o mail will be distributed only once a day, at 8pm, instead of at
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    o mail will not arrive as several individual messages; instead, it
      will be bundled up into a "daily digest".

I am sorry that the immediate feedback members are used to on the
instant delivery list will be significantly impacted.  I am also sorry
that the messages will not arrive individually, but be bundled into
daily digests.

In light of the recent increase in traffic and number of recipients, I
have been asked to reduce the mail load on the Tektronix corporate mail
server, and this is my first shot at it.  Hopefully, no further changes
will be necessary.  Sorry to pull executive fiat on this one, folks, but
these changes are necessary--so that the list keeps a low profile so it
isn't axed by Tek management.

In the mean time, keep up those information-packed postings!

James
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-------- TML Message #1056 --------

Archive-Message-Number: 1057
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 90 19:31 EST
From: (Bob Mahoney) BOBMAH%PSC.BITNET@mitvma.mit.edu
Subject: History Question!


Here's one for metlay, the Traveller Relic, and other local savants:

In Traveller's Digest #17, at the end of the "Psionic Knights" module, mention
is made of Count Draco Sylas, "...one of the most important members in the
Domain of Deneb."

Is this a person with a "Classic Traveller" history?  Who is he?  Where is he?
Any other info?

Thankee!

- -BobMah

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-------- TML Message #1057 --------

Archive-Message-Number: 1058
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 90 09:38:26 EST
From: (Greg Givler - Product Assurance) givler@cbmvax.commodore.COM
Subject: Re:  Some Thoughts...


>Just out of curiosity...  how do other folks out there handle the prospect
>of military career characters swapping services?

There was an article several years ago that had all the services and what
you could move to. The logic being that most of us don't stay in the same
job all your life, so why should someone in the Traveller Universe. I think
this article was in an old White Dwarf. I could have been in an old Journal
though. The GM that has run all the Traveller Campaigns that I have played
in, used this to roll up characters. I have had characters with 2 terms in
the Scouts, 1 Term in the Rogues and two Terms in the Nobles, and so on.

If I can I will see if he has the orignal article and where it was published.
The thing I remember was that the older you got the less choices you had.
it also had die modifiers for enlistment too.

Greg

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-------- TML Message #1058 --------

Archive-Message-Number: 1059
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 90 23:02 EST
From: METLAY@vms.cis.pitt.edu
Subject: Re: Some Thoughts...



Not only is cross-enlistment viable, it's vital, especially from military
to non-militarty service ("Yes, Tukera Lines likes having the best pilots.
That's why we hire Navy vets. Don't let retirement mean wasting away:
call your local Tukera office.") A character who can dip into two or more
areas of service becomes better rounded and more useful in an adventure.
I've had rules of this type for years, and they work very well. Interestingly,
tho, the only place where such things are legal in the official rules are
when the character is a Vargr. Short attention spans, I guess.|->

metlay

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-------- TML Message #1059 --------

Archive-Message-Number: 1060
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 90 23:09 EST
From: METLAY@vms.cis.pitt.edu
Subject: Re: Anti-Matter


 
The only reactions that matter in matter-antimatter collision are on  the
subatomic level; positrons with electrons yielding two gamma rays at 511
keV each, and protons with antiprotons yielding gamma pairs at appx. 1 GeV
each. The gross structure of the antimatter is unimportant..


Interestingly enough, there was a serious science text called "Galaxies,
Antigalaxies" thaty theorized galaxies being entirely made of antimatter, thus
explaining why there's a local imbalance of matter to antimatter in our galaxy.
This theory was debunked when time reversal violation was discovered  and a

real reason for the predominance of matter was explained. In fact, it's this
fact that makes places like Shionthy impossible in normal physics. (Shionthy
is an antimatter asteroid belt in the MArches. It was made by Grandfather.)

metlay

forgive the typos, the echo speed is terrible. I HATE Tennessee! HATE IT!

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-------- TML Message #1060 --------

Archive-Message-Number: 1061
Subject: Re: Psionic help 
Date: Mon, 19 Feb 90 22:45:14 PST
From: (Leonard Erickson) leonard@tessi.UUCP


>> ...........................  For a given amount of antimatter (or
>> contra-terrene matter) m, the reaction optimally converts a mass of 2m
>> (the antimatter plus an equivalent amount of normal, or terrene matter)
>> into energy.  The relationship is shown mathematically with the famous
>> equation:
>>                 2
>>           E = mc                                   (1)
>> 
>> where E is the energy produced, m is the mass, and c is the speed of light
>> in a vacuum (approximately 3e8 m/s).  As you can see, even a small amount
>> of mass represents a *huge* (at least, in human terms) amount of energy.
>> 
>>      In the above example of 1 mg of antimatter, the reaction would
>> involve 2 mg of mass (don't forget your normal matter), so the energy is
>> (using cgs):
>> 
>>           E = (2e-3) * (3e10)
>>             = 6e7 ergs
>> 
>>      Not bad, but not catastophic, either.  Don't forget, in the example
>
>The TOTAL CONVERSION statement is correct, and the formula is correct,
>but the numbers plugged into it are WAY off.  The Speed-of-Light (3e8 m/s)
>squared is 9e16, not 3e10 (remember, (x^y)^z = (x^z)^(y*z)).  Therefore,
>using MKS units:
>
>        E = (2e-3) * (9e16)
>          = 1.8e14 joules (= 1.8e21 ergs, since 1 joule=1e7 ergs)
>
>not 6e7 ergs.  And since that amount of energy would make plasma of a 
>Plankwell-class battleship, well, if that's not catastrophic, then I don't
>want to be around for something that is :-).  Seriously, according to The
>Encyclopaedia Britannica (15th Ed., 1987), in Vol. 16, page 520, Column 1,
>the total energy (including radiation) generated by the 20-kiloton bomb
>dropped on Hiroshima was about 1e13 joules (1e7 Kw-Hrs.).  If we assume
>(based on that data) that there are 5e12 joules released per kiloton of
>nuclear detonation (1e13/20), and that any increase is linear, then the
>total conversion reaction postulated above would be roughly eqaul to a
>200 kiloton nuclear detonation.

except you got the figures wrong too!

E=(2e-6)*(9e16) {it's two *milligrams*, not two *grams!!}

E= 1.8e11 joules 

So we get about .36 kT using your figures  for joules/kT.

But your figures disagree with themselves. 1e13 joules = 2.7e6 kW-hr.

Since I don't have the same edition of the Brittanica, I can't check
your reference because you didn't give the name of the article!

I can't find any of my references at the moment, but I remember that
1 MT = 4.2e??? ergs. So we have a problem.

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-------- TML Message #1061 --------

Archive-Message-Number: 1062
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 90 11:29:32 EST
From: (Paul Dale) wrgate.wr.tek.com!uunet.uu.net!munnari!batserver.cs.uq.oz.au!grue@tektronix.TEK.COM
Subject: Re: pilot 7's (rather on the long side)


hiya,

>In this tome I beat the `level 7' horse completely to death.
>I look at it from a bunch of different angles to come up with what
>we, as ref's and players, already knew:
I've come up with another angle :-)
The results are right at the end of this article (way way way down at the
bottom).  They are quite interesting!!

>
>OK.  Now I can answer Bertil's question: `how many pilot-7 folks are
>there in (some region of space)?'  A LOT!  Just try to find them,
>though.  
>
>If there's ~10^13 people in a sector, even extremely low probability
>events are numerous.
I'll assume that there are 10^13 people in a sector and I'll also assume that
only half of them have joined a service.

>
>Since he specifically asked about *pilot-7*, I'll divide by my
>infamous 160 skills and guess that the Marches have 12,500
>pilot-7's.  (and 12,500 equestrian-7's, and 12,500 etc.)
>
>there's probably about 1,000 pilot 8's  IF they lived long enough
>and about 100 pilot 9's.  It'd take over 100 years to get to 8 and
>over 250 to get to 9 though...
>
>If you account for consistently lucky rolls and for age, 
>there's probably 50 pilot-8's in the Marches and probably 50 
>pilot 9's in all known space who are actually young enough to fly.
>
My calculations reveal that these estimate are quite a lot on the low side.

If you don't like lots of (simple) probability theory and basic statistics
then skip down to the end and look at the results.





I worked from the scout service (since it gives easy figures to process)
I assume that about 1 in 6 people are in the scout service (from the
draft thingy).
Thus,
	Pr(Scout) = 1/6

To survive a term of service, you've got to roll 7+ (21 in 36) unless you've
got END of 9+ then you have to roll 5+ (30 in 36).  The chance of END 9+ is
10 in 36 (I ignore aging effects).
So,
	Pr(survive a term) = 10/36 * 30/36 + 26/36 * 21/36 = 47/72

To re-enlist you need 3+ (35 in 36), I ignore the force re-enlist option.
Thus,
	Pr(re-enlist) = 35/36

I also assume that a person will remain in the service until they die or they
fail to re-enlist.  If the die I'll assume that they left at the end of the
previous term and not receive any skills for this term).

The expected number of terms served by an average scout character is

Sum(i=1..12) i * (35/36)^(i-1) * (47/72)^i * (1/36 + 35/36 * 25/72)
             ^         ^             ^                ^
        # terms  Pr(re-enlist)  Pr(surviving)  Pr(fail re-enlist or dying)

This sum is approximately equal to 1.74
The prob of all these terms is 0.64999 say 0.65
The probability of not surviving the first term is: 25/72 = 0.347222
So the probability of serving longer than 12 terms is 0.00278, and if
I assume that all longer services are actually 12 terms we add 0.03 to the sum
(12*0.00278 = 0.033)

So an average scout character would expect to be in the service for 1.77 terms
(Bet you didn't think it was that short did ya).

[ for other services I'd expect a little longer since scouts don't survive
very well ]

Now turning to skills received:
A scout receives 2 skills per term (plus 2 extra in the first term)
A scout can also receive special duty on a roll of 4+ (giving one extra skill)
but if that roll is 8+ the character receives two extra skills.

Pr(2 skills per term) = 3/36
Pr(3 skills per term) = 18/36
Pr(4 skills per term) = 15/36
And 2 bounus skills for the first term and a pilot-1 for being a scout.

The expected number of skills per term is:
	2*3/36 + 3*18/36 + 4*15/36 = 10/3 = 3.33333

So for an average scout character, the characters would be expected to have
	3.333*1.77 + 2 + pilot-1
	or 7.89999 skills and a bonous pilot-1.

For simplicity assume the character gets 8 skills and pilot-1


Looking at the skill table the chance of a space skill is given by:
	15/36 * 2/24 + 21/36 * 1/18 = 29/432
(taking into account the advanced education table and assuming that the
tables are equally likely)

Looking at the space skill table, there are 6 skills present so assume that
1 in 6 space skills are actually pilot.

Thus,
	Pr(any scout skill being pilot) = 29/432 * 1/6 = 29/2592 = 0.011188

Consider the event that a skill is pilot vs it isn't.
Pr(event) = 29/2592
Pr(not event) = 1- 29/2592

Expanding the probabilities for the 8 skills the average scout character gets
gives,
Pr(event occurs 0 times) = 0.573548
Pr(event occurs 1 time) =  0.330181
Pr(event occurs 3 times) = 8.315997e-2
Pr(event occurs 3 times) = 1.196843e-2
Pr(event occurs 4 times) = 1.076564e-3
Pr(event occurs 5 times) = 6.197594e-5
Pr(event occurs 6 times) = 2.229903e-6
Pr(event occurs 7 times) = 4.584701e-8
Pr(event occurs 8 times) = 4.123955e-10

Going back to the population initially considered.
10^13 people, divided by 2 since half of all people aren't of consideration,
better divide by 10 -> 10^12
then 1 in 6 end up in the scouts: 10^12 / 6: 166,666,666,666 people under
consideration.

Multiplying by the above probs gives the number of scouts with each skill level
(remember these are average scouts,  aged less than 26 since they've served
less than two term !!!)

pilot-1 = 95591470883
pilot-2 = 55030325669
pilot-3 = 13859995174
pilot-4 = 1994738759
pilot-5 = 179427333
pilot-6 = 10329324
pilot-7 = 371650.640
pilot-8 = 7641.168
pilot-9 = 68.732

I'd expect there to be quite a lot of pilot-9's running (flying) around the
place.  Pilot-7's are really common place. By pilot-11 I'd expect them to be
quite rare.  Also remember that this is only considering the scout service
since the numbers are easier than for the other services.  Other (ranked)
services would allow for many more skills to be obtained, but they don't get
the bonus of pilot-1 for simply joining up.

Belters would be nice to ruin since SPACE is a very common skill for them.


Also note that since MegaTraveller restricts the DM on a task to be +-8, high
skills levels are unlikely to upset game balance.  I think that they'd only
make the character more famous/infamous in his/her profession.  That is, there
isn't too much difference between a pilot-8 and a pilot-10 in game terms, the
pilot-10 would command a much bigger salary.




							Pauli
seeya
SNIF

Paul Dale               | Internet/CSnet:            grue@batserver.cs.uq.oz.au
Dept of Computer Science| Bitnet:       grue%batserver.cs.uq.oz.au@uunet.uu.net
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-------- TML Message #1062 --------

Archive-Message-Number: 1063
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 90 12:09 EST
From: METLAY@vms.cis.pitt.edu
Subject: Re: History Question!



metlay say nope.

I don't have my library here in Tennessee, but to the best of my memory
this fellow was introduced strictly for the purpose of this module.

(Psionics. Yuck.)  |->

metlay

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-------- TML Message #1063 --------

Archive-Message-Number: 1064
Date: Tue, 20 Feb 90 10:58:51 -0500
From: Mark Gellis <f3w@mentor.cc.purdue.edu>
Subject: Missiles


Just reading some stuff on missiles, anti-matter, etc. and I thought
I would put in my two cents.

Anti-particle beams may not work.  They would, after all, have to be
charged particles, and these (a) do not work well in space to begin with
and (b) can be deflected by magnetic fields.  This is why there is so
much trouble about SDI, you need neutral particle beams to make it work
in deep space (and high energy neutrons are about as good for your health
as recent French philosophy), BUT they are much harder to build.  Of
course, since this is the FUTURE, we can assume these mere technical
problems have been overwhelmed by our engineers-uber-alles.

Anti-matter bombs might work, but they are probably going to be real
expensive, even assuming the reduction in cost allowed by mass production
of anti-matter.  (Here's an adventure idea for all you GM's--anti-terrorist
work (or terrorist work) at an anti-matter production facility.  Using
guns near a lot of the equipment might be what we commonly refer to as 
a BAD IDEA.)

One more thing about missiles.  I don't know how people run it in their
game worlds, but even my conventinal missiles with wimpy 100 kg. TNT
warheads do a lot of damage.  Why?  Missiles in space work differently
than missiles in an atmosphere.  I have missiles boosting at 20 gees,
usually from a distance of several thousand kilometers (the maximum
range on the long range versions is 300,000 km. and it takes it nearly
an hour to reach its target).  Missiles generally have course-correction
stuff built into their computer brains, so they simply accelerate at their
targets.  They usually hit at something like 50 km./sec.  You have any
idea what happens to a spaceship when it gets hit by something like this?
Picture the USS Nimitz...now picture it after being hit by a meteor that
weighs as much as Buick!

To keep my space combat system simple, I have adopted a base value for
missile hits, even though they might be moving at different speeds (there
is probably a diminishing return of effects, and as the missile boosts,
it does get lighter since it is using up fuel).  A single missile hit
will totally destroy a spacecraft of less than 12,500 tons (picture a
California-class cruiser) and will disable--"Keptin!  We're dead in space!"--
a spacecraft of less than 25,000 tons (picture the Soviet Kirov-class 
cruiser.)  Of course, since missile attacks are often made in huge
barrages designed to overwhelm anti-missile defensive lasers, the point
is often moot.

Take care all.

    Mark

-------- End of TML Messages --------

